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What Can the World Learn from Japan's Disaster Preparedness? Systems, Hard Lessons and What to Do Today
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What Can the World Learn from Japan's Disaster Preparedness? Systems, Hard Lessons and What to Do Today

Japan sits where about a fifth of the world's magnitude-6 earthquakes happen. How its early warnings, building codes and school drills work, where they still fall short, and a practical checklist, all checked against official sources

J-Times Editorial

J-Times 編集部 / J-Times Editorial Team

March 25, 2026Updated: Oct 26, 202616 min419 views
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About a fifth of the world's M6+ earthquakes happen around Japan. What its early warnings, building codes and school drills have achieved, why deaths after disasters remain its biggest gap, and what you can do today, from official sources.

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Short answer (as of 26 October 2026): About a fifth of the world's magnitude-6-plus earthquakes happen in and around Japan. Through earthquake early warnings, tougher building codes, school disaster education and its role in the UN's disaster-risk agreements, Japan has shared a great deal with the rest of the world. But there is no evidence that Japan's preparedness is "saving the world", and Japan itself still loses lives in every major quake. Its biggest unsolved problem is people dying in the weeks after a disaster, in shelters and disrupted lives. What others can learn from is not a finished product but a set of systems and habits, paid for with many lives.

This article was first published in March 2026 and has been rewritten after checking its claims against official sources. Figures in the old version such as "1,500 felt earthquakes a year", "10% of the world's seismic energy" and "Mexico, Chile and Turkey are adopting Japan's technology" were either wrong or could not be traced to a source, and have been corrected or removed (see "What we corrected" near the end).

Behind Japan's disaster record are people who rarely make the news: neighbours clearing rubble, volunteers cooking in evacuation centres, and villagers who carved warnings about past tsunamis into stone so their grandchildren would not forget. The questions below take the topic one step at a time. If you are visiting Japan and want to know exactly what to do in an earthquake, see Emergency in Japan? What travellers should call and do.

A tsunami evacuation tower at Suzukawa Port Park, with steel stairs leading up to a raised platform. Photo: くろふね / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0 (10 October 2026)
A tsunami evacuation tower at Suzukawa Port Park, with steel stairs leading up to a raised platform. Photo: くろふね / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0 (10 October 2026)

Photo: くろふね / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0

How earthquake-prone is Japan?

Japan covers about 0.25% of the world's land, yet 326 of the 1,758 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or more recorded worldwide between 2003 and 2013 (18.5%) happened around Japan, according to the Cabinet Office's 2014 White Paper on Disaster Management.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) counted 4,456 earthquakes felt at seismic intensity 1 or more in 2025, up from 3,678 in 2024. There were 22 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or more in 2025 (30 in 2024); over the 107 years from 1919, the median is 16 a year.

JMA itself warns that felt-earthquake counts are hard to compare across years because the number of seismometers has grown. The 2024 total was pushed up by the Noto Peninsula earthquake, and 2025 by a swarm near the Tokara Islands. The old version's "about 1,500 a year" is well below recent counts, and we could find no primary source for "10% of the world's seismic energy".

On 28 July 2026, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake (preliminary) struck the Kumamoto region of Kyushu, with the maximum intensity of 7 recorded in Uki and Hikawa. It was the first intensity-7 reading since the Noto quake of January 2024.

What does the earthquake early warning do, and what can't it do?

It uses the first, weaker waves (P-waves) picked up near the epicentre to estimate the quake's location and size automatically, then warns people before the strong shaking (S-waves) arrives. Public warnings began on 1 October 2007. Close to the epicentre, though, the warning can arrive too late. That is a physical limit, not a fault.

According to JMA, P-waves travel at about 7 km per second and the damaging S-waves at about 4 km per second. The system exploits that gap, using about 690 JMA stations and about 1,000 run by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience.

The public warning is issued when at least two stations detect the quake and the forecast maximum intensity is 5-lower or more (or long-period ground motion class 3 or more). It goes to areas expected to feel intensity 4 or more. JMA does not announce a predicted intensity or a countdown, because the forecast can be off by about one intensity level and the warning time varies widely from place to place.

When you hear it, protect yourself first and stay put until the shaking stops. For what to do indoors, outdoors or behind the wheel, see the section "What happens when an earthquake hits?" in our emergency guide.

We removed two claims from the old version: that "a few seconds save thousands of lives", and that Mexico, Chile and Turkey "have begun adopting this Japanese technology". We could not find evidence for either.

Do Japan's building codes actually work?

Yes. After the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, a full survey of 1,955 wooden buildings in central Mashiki, where intensity 7 was recorded twice, found that 28.2% of houses built before June 1981 had collapsed, against 8.7% of those built between June 1981 and May 2000 and 2.2% of those built from June 2000. The flip side is that older homes remain dangerous.

The survey was carried out by the Architectural Institute of Japan and analysed by a committee set up by the land ministry and the Building Research Institute, which reported on 30 September 2016. Japan's standards have been tightened after major quakes, most importantly with the 1981 "new seismic standard" and further rules for wooden houses in 2000.

After the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake, an expert committee of the land ministry heard field reports that wooden houses built to the old standard, more than 45 years ago, accounted for a conspicuous share of collapses; the analysis is still under way. The old version's claim that "buildings that withstand intensity-7 shaking are standard" went too far.

In 2011, more than 90% of the people who died in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima drowned, according to the National Police Agency figures in the 2011 White Paper. Many buildings survived the shaking; it was mainly the tsunami that killed.

If you live in Japan: if your home was built before June 1981, ask your city office about a seismic assessment. Fix tall furniture to the wall and keep heavy objects away from where you sleep.

What does the "Kamaishi event" teach?

When the 2011 tsunami hit Kamaishi in Iwate, almost all of the city's roughly 3,000 school pupils (2,926 according to a Ministry of Education training document and other sources) escaped. The only five who died were absent from school that day. Because children did die, the city and the Cabinet Office call it the "Kamaishi event" rather than the "Miracle of Kamaishi".

The outcome rested on years of disaster education that the city, its board of education and schools ran with advice from Professor Toshitaka Katada, then at Gunma University. The Cabinet Office describes it as the result of following three principles for tsunami evacuation:

  • Don't trust the scenario. A hazard map is only a forecast. Don't relax just because a place is marked safe.
  • Do your best in the situation you are in. The first place you reach may not be the safest. Keep moving to higher ground if you can.
  • Be the first to evacuate. Drop the idea that "it won't happen to me". When you run, others follow.

The earthquake struck after classes had ended, and many children could not wait for teachers' instructions. Junior-high students led primary-school children by the hand, something they had practised in joint drills.

Do people die only when the ground shakes?

No. By 31 August 2026 the death toll of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake stood at 755: 228 direct deaths from collapsed buildings and other immediate causes, and 527 "disaster-related deaths" of people whose health failed in evacuation and its aftermath, more than twice as many.

In the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, most of the 278 deaths were disaster-related (about 220, according to a question put to the disaster minister at a Cabinet Office press conference).

On 19 December 2025 the government published a new damage scenario for a large earthquake directly beneath Tokyo. In the worst case for an M7.3 quake under the south of central Tokyo, up to about 18,000 people would die, fewer than the roughly 23,000 in the 2013 estimate. For the first time, it also estimated disaster-related deaths: 16,000 to 41,000. Retrofitting can cut the number killed by shaking; keeping people alive after they evacuate is Japan's next task.

That is why preparedness does not end with getting out. Water, toilets, regular medication, and protection from heat and cold keep people alive in the weeks afterwards.

What has Japan offered the rest of the world?

It has hosted and shaped the UN's disaster-risk agreements. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 was adopted at the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai in March 2015. It set seven global targets, including fewer deaths and lower economic losses.

It replaced the Hyogo Framework for Action, adopted in 2005. In December 2015, after a resolution co-sponsored by Japan and 141 other countries, the UN General Assembly designated 5 November as World Tsunami Awareness Day. The date recalls the Inamura no hi ("fire of the rice sheaves") story from the Ansei-Nankai earthquake of 1854, when Hamaguchi Goryō set fire to harvested rice in Hiro village, Wakayama, to guide villagers to high ground.

Saying that Japan's preparedness has "saved the world" is another matter: the UN is still tracking progress on the Sendai targets from national reports. What Japan can offer is a record of its failures and losses as much as its successes.

How does Japan keep old warnings alive?

In 2019 the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan created a new map symbol for "natural disaster monuments", stones that record past tsunamis, floods and landslides. It was the first new map symbol in 13 years.

These stones were put up by local people so that later generations would not forget what happened there. Putting them on the map lets newcomers and visitors learn the history under their feet. Looking up the monuments near your home on the GSI map is a simple place to start.

How does everyday infrastructure respond?

On 1 July 2017, seven retailers including Seven-Eleven, Lawson and FamilyMart became "designated public institutions" under the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act, the first retailers to do so. Among other things, it lets them pre-register vehicles for emergency road access.

The designation followed the role stores played in delivering supplies and reopening quickly after the 2011 and 2016 disasters (see also Japan's konbini). But stores can be damaged and closed too, so do not count on them instead of your own supplies. The old version's mention of "disaster-response vending machines" has been dropped because we could not re-verify it this time.

How should I read the Nankai Trough and Tokyo earthquake probabilities?

On 26 September 2025, the government's Earthquake Research Committee revised the 30-year probability of a Nankai Trough megaquake. It now gives two figures side by side, "60 to 90% or more" and "20 to 50%", from two calculation methods. The risk has not gone down.

On 8 August 2024, after an M7.1 earthquake off Hyūganada (intensity 6-lower in Miyazaki), JMA issued its first ever "Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information (Megaquake Advisory)". The government's special call for caution ended on 15 August. The advisory is not a prediction of when a quake will strike.

For Tokyo, the government works on the assumption that a magnitude-7-class earthquake has about a 70% chance of striking within 30 years. The realistic way to read these numbers is not "in how many years" but "it could happen at any time".

A preparedness checklist you can use today

If you live in Japan or are staying a while

  • Store 3 litres of water per person per day for at least three days, ideally a week (Ministry of Agriculture guidance).
  • Keep food by "rolling stock": buy a little more of what you normally eat and replace what you use.
  • Check flood, landslide and tsunami risk for home, work and school on the government's hazard map portal.
  • Agree with your family how you will contact each other and where to meet.
  • If your home was built before June 1981, ask about a seismic assessment.

If you are visiting

  • Learn the emergency numbers, the visitor hotline and the difference between an evacuation site and a shelter in our emergency guide.
  • On the coast, note the nearest high ground or tsunami evacuation building near your hotel or station.
  • For water when the taps stop, see our Japan tap water guide.

Common mistakes

  • Buying emergency supplies and letting them expire (rotate them).
  • Treating an uncoloured area on a hazard map as a guarantee of safety ("don't trust the scenario").
  • Relaxing your preparations because a probability figure went down.

Frequently asked questions

Is it safe to travel in a country with so many earthquakes? The risk is not zero, but nearly all trips pass without trouble. Knowing the emergency numbers and what to do when an earthquake or tsunami warning sounds means you will not freeze if it happens.

What is the difference between seismic intensity and magnitude? Magnitude is the size of the earthquake itself. Seismic intensity (shindo) is how strongly the ground shakes at a particular place, so one quake produces different intensities in different towns.

Why did my phone sound an earthquake alert when I barely felt anything? Forecasts can be off by about one intensity level, and JMA does not cancel a warning when the forecast is lowered. It cancels only false alarms caused by something other than an earthquake, such as lightning.

When will the Nankai Trough earthquake happen? No one can predict the date. The probability describes how likely it is within 30 years: it could happen tomorrow, or not for decades.

Is it wrong to say "Miracle of Kamaishi"? Not wrong as such, but Kamaishi City and the Cabinet Office use "Kamaishi event" out of respect for the children who died.

What we corrected

  • "About 1,500 felt earthquakes a year" → JMA's 2024 and 2025 counts, with JMA's caveat.
  • "About 10% of the world's seismic energy" → removed (no source found); replaced with 18.5% of M6+ earthquakes (2003-2013).
  • "Mexico, Chile and Turkey have begun adopting this Japanese technology" and "a few seconds save thousands of lives" → removed (not verifiable).
  • "Buildings that withstand intensity 7 are standard" → replaced with collapse rates by construction period.
  • "Miracle of Kamaishi" → added the numbers and the name the city uses.
  • "Disaster-response vending machines" → dropped (not re-verified).
  • Added: disaster-related deaths, the Sendai Framework, World Tsunami Awareness Day, disaster monuments, the revised Nankai probability and a checklist.

Sources and dates checked (all checked on 2026-10-26)

By J-Times Editorial (information as of 2026-10-26)

#disaster preparedness#earthquake#Japan safety#Kamaishi#Sendai Framework#tsunami

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J-Times 編集部 / J-Times Editorial Team